Florida Agriculture 2026: What Local Farmers Are Watching This Year

Florida agriculture in 2026 faces a pivotal year. The short answer for what we are all watching: weather volatility from a shifting El Nino pattern, continued citrus greening devastation that has now reduced production by 75 percent since 2005, growing momentum toward crop diversification, and new state investment in agricultural resilience. For small farms like ours here at Wholly Water Farms, the trends point toward controlled environment agriculture and direct-to-consumer channels becoming not just optional but essential strategies for survival in Florida's changing agricultural landscape.

I have been farming in Florida long enough to know that every year brings surprises, but 2026 is shaping up to be one of those inflection-point years where the decisions farmers make now will determine who is still farming five years from now. Let me walk you through what matters most.

What Weather Patterns Should Florida Farmers Expect in 2026?

Weather is always the headline for Florida agriculture, and 2026 started with a bang. Early February brought the most significant deep-south freeze since 2010, causing an 8 percent loss in sugarcane production and damaging citrus, blueberries, and strawberries across the state. That freeze was a harsh reminder that even in the Sunshine State, cold events can reshape an entire growing season overnight.

The broader pattern heading into 2026 is defined by a dry start to the growing season. We ended 2025 dry, and that drought has carried over into the new year. Climate models from NOAA and UF/IFAS are pointing toward an eventual switch to El Nino conditions, which historically brings wetter-than-normal weather to Florida. The hope is that this shift will provide drought relief as we move through spring and into summer, but the timing remains uncertain.

For farmers planning their seasons right now, the practical takeaway is this: plan for dry conditions through at least early spring, invest in water conservation and irrigation efficiency, and build in flexibility for your planting schedules. If you are growing outdoors, water conservation strategies are not optional this year — they are survival tools.

Hurricane season is another variable we are all watching. El Nino conditions typically suppress tropical storm development, which could mean a quieter hurricane season. But as any Florida farmer knows, it only takes one storm to change everything. Make sure your infrastructure can handle what comes.

How Bad Is Citrus Greening in Florida Right Now?

The citrus situation continues to be the most painful story in Florida agriculture. Total orange production for the 2025-2026 season is expected to drop to a new record low of approximately 12 million 90-pound boxes. To put that in perspective, Florida was producing over 240 million boxes annually before citrus greening — also known as Huanglongbing or HLB — arrived in 2005. That is a decline of roughly 95 percent over two decades.

The disease has spread to every citrus-producing area in the state, and it has more than doubled the cost of production for growers still trying to hold on. There is some good news on the research front: UF/IFAS scientists continue to work on greening-tolerant rootstock and budwood varieties, and the state's 2026-2027 budget includes $196 million for the citrus industry, with specific allocations for the Crop Transformation Center and the Citrus Budwood Program.

But the reality on the ground is that many growers are making the difficult decision to diversify away from citrus. Major Florida growers are converting up to 50 percent of their agricultural land to alternative crops. This is not giving up — it is adapting. And that diversification is creating new opportunities for the rest of us.

What Crops Are Florida Farmers Diversifying Into?

The crop diversification movement is one of the most exciting developments in Florida agriculture right now. Here is what we are seeing farmers move toward:

• Specialty produce and microgreens: Controlled environment agriculture — which we have written about before — allows year-round production regardless of weather. Microgreens, specialty lettuces, and herbs grown hydroponically or aquaponically are seeing strong demand from restaurants, farmers markets, and direct consumers.
• Berries: Blueberries and strawberries continue to be strong performers when not hit by freezes. Florida berry production has expanded significantly in recent years.
• Mushrooms: Indoor mushroom farming is gaining traction as a climate-resilient option. The controlled conditions required for mushroom production actually make Florida's challenging outdoor conditions irrelevant.
• Aquaponics and hydroponics: These systems allow farmers to produce both fish and vegetables in integrated systems. Aquaponics is particularly interesting for its water efficiency — using up to 90 percent less water than traditional farming.
• Hemp and specialty herbs: Florida's warm climate is well-suited for certain herb and specialty crop production, particularly when combined with season extension techniques.

At Wholly Water Farms, we have been part of this diversification trend from the beginning. Our focus on microgreens, aquaponics, and hydroponic growing reflects what we believe is the future of small-scale Florida agriculture: high-value crops grown in controlled environments and sold directly to people who care about where their food comes from.

What Regulatory Changes Affect Florida Farmers in 2026?

Several regulatory and policy developments are worth tracking this year:

The Florida legislature has been working on the Florida Crop Diversification Commission initiative, which aims to support farmers transitioning from citrus to alternative crops. This could mean new grant programs, technical assistance, and market development resources for diversifying farms.

Water management districts continue to tighten regulations around agricultural water use, particularly in areas experiencing drought stress. If you irrigate from wells or surface water, stay current with your water management district's requirements. Conservation-focused farming methods like hydroponics and aquaponics may gain preferential treatment in water allocation decisions.

The USDA's organic certification process and the ongoing development of standards for controlled environment agriculture are also evolving. These standards affect how indoor-grown produce can be marketed and what price premiums it can command.

Why Does the Local Food Movement Matter More Than Ever in Florida?

Here is something I have noticed over the past year that gives me real hope: consumer demand for locally grown food in Florida is stronger than ever. Farmers markets are expanding, farm-to-table restaurants are proliferating, and CSA programs are seeing waiting lists.

This matters for several reasons. First, it creates viable markets for small and mid-size farms that cannot compete with industrial agriculture on volume. Second, it shortens supply chains, which reduces waste and ensures fresher food reaches consumers. Third, it builds community resilience — when your food comes from nearby, disruptions in global supply chains do not hit your dinner table as hard.

The farm-to-table movement in Florida is not a trend anymore. It is becoming infrastructure. Restaurants, schools, and hospitals are building relationships with local growers, and consumers are increasingly willing to pay fair prices for food they can trust. Our farm-to-table story is just one example of how these direct relationships benefit everyone involved.

What Should Small Florida Farms Focus on in 2026?

If I had to give advice to a fellow small farmer heading into this year, here is what I would say:

1. Invest in climate resilience. Whether that means building a grow room, installing shade structures, or upgrading your irrigation, protect yourself from weather volatility. Our experience building our grow room was one of the best decisions we ever made.
2. Diversify your crops and your revenue streams. Do not depend on a single crop or a single market channel. Grow multiple products, sell through multiple channels, and consider value-added products.
3. Build direct customer relationships. Social media, farmers markets, restaurant partnerships, and subscription programs all create loyal customers who will support you through tough years.
4. Conserve water aggressively. The dry pattern is real, regulations are tightening, and water-efficient growing methods are both practical and marketable.
5. Stay informed. Follow UF/IFAS Extension, attend regional agricultural meetings, and connect with other farmers. The challenges we face are too big to tackle alone.

Looking back on our own journey over the past two years, every tough season has taught us something valuable. Florida agriculture in 2026 will test us, but the farmers who adapt, diversify, and stay connected to their communities will come through it stronger. I am optimistic about what this year can bring — not because it will be easy, but because Florida farmers have always figured out how to grow through adversity.